Kenya’s longest serving opposition leader and former Prime minister Raila Odinga is known for his excellent political mobilization strategies. He enjoys a huge support across the country and his political party, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has supporters in almost every corner of the nation.

Affectionately known as “Baba” by his supporters, Raila is more than just a politician. To many, he symbolizes hope, defiance, and unyielding dedication to Kenya as a country. With a political career spanning several decades, Raila has masterfully navigated through and found himself in government through a process dubbed ‘Handshake’ despite losing an election.

Raila’s political journey is a tale of tenacity and shrewd manoeuvring. Born into a political dynasty, he has carved out his legacy and stood always to address national matters and good governance.

Mr. Odinga has contested for presidential elections five times now and officially managed to win almost half of the total votes in the last four. Despite defeat each time, Raila has consistently secured a significant portion of the electorate. His supporters, driven by a mix of admiration and loyalty, often find themselves at a crossroads, caught between hope for change and the harsh realities of political compromise. Many are left wondering why their leader whose political manifestoes are different from their opponent could find a way to embrace the same government.

In 1997, Raila made his first major foray into presidential politics, finishing third behind Mwai Kibaki and the incumbent, President Daniel Moi. Despite losing, Raila displayed entered into a working relationship with President Moi. This alliance led to the merger of Raila’s National Development Party (NDP) with Moi’s Kenya African National Union (KANU) in March 2002. However, this union was short-lived, as Moi’s decision to endorse Uhuru Kenyatta as his successor strained the alliance, prompting Raila to chart his path once again.

The 2007 elections marked a turning point in Raila’s political career and in Kenya’s history. The fiercely contested election ended in violence, plunging the nation into turmoil. In a bid to restore peace, Raila and President Mwai Kibaki reached a historic power-sharing agreement, brokered by local, regional, and international actors. The resultant coalition government saw Kibaki retain the presidency while Raila assumed the newly created position of Prime Minister, sharing power in a 50/50 arrangement.

2017 Handshake

Fast forward to the controversial 2017 elections. The electoral process was marred by allegations of irregularities, leading Raila to boycott the repeat elections in October. President Uhuru Kenyatta was subsequently declared the winner, but the legitimacy of his victory was heavily contested.

In a surprising move, nearly eight months after the disputed polls, Raila and Uhuru met on the steps of Harambee House, shaking hands in a gesture that symbolized reconciliation and national unity. This handshake, dubbed the “March 2018 Handshake,” caught many by surprise and led to significant political realignments. Uhuru’s government was reorganized, and Raila was accorded a prominent role, showcasing his knack for turning political defeats into strategic victories.

Gen z Demands

Most recently, the political landscape in Kenya witnessed another seismic shift with the handshake between President William Ruto and Raila Odinga that saw Ruto dissolving his cabinet except for Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs Musalia Mudavadi following weeks of nationwide protests led by Gen Z activists.  Gen Z is demanding Ruto’s resignation, They want Ruto to address economic challenges facing the country, dissolve parliament and cabinet,  address corruption issues, remove the housing levy, restore the Mama Linda program, return the school feeding program, reduce the fuel levy, address on the national debt, reduce university fees among other demands.

Raila Odinga has used this as the opportunity to meet with Ruto to reorganize the government. Speculation is rife that Raila will be granted several cabinet slots and other significant government positions.

The pattern is unmistakable: Raila’s handshakes are more than mere political gestures. They are strategic moves that reshape governments, influence policy directions, and alter the course of the nation’s political discourse. Yet, they also leave his loyal supporters grappling with mixed emotions. On one hand, these alliances have often resulted in tangible benefits and a semblance of stability. On the other, they have forced their followers to endure periods of disappointment and disillusionment, as their dreams of sweeping change are tempered by the realities of political compromise.

The question here remains: What will Raila’s latest handshake bring? Will it usher in a new era of justice and reform, or will it be yet another chapter in the long saga of political maneuvering? Only time will tell.